Brewers Had Offseason Extension Talks With Willy Adames

Brewers owner Mark Attanasio spoke to reporters, including Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, about a variety of topics prior to last night’s game in Milwaukee. Perhaps most noteworthy of those topics was the future of shortstop Willy Adames, who is currently slated to hit free agency following the 2024 campaign. Attanasio was candid about the fact that the club made “plenty of offers” to Adames throughout the offseason in hopes of retaining him on a long-term deal. While Attanasio did not provide further details on those offers, his comments appeared to suggest that he does not have confidence in his ability to keep Adames in Milwaukee long term at this point.

“He’s the best,” Attanasio said of Adames, as relayed by Hogg. “…Willy’s performance got to a point where it would be – we’ll see what happens after the season – but he’s going to command quite a significant package as a free agent.”

Attanasio certainly isn’t wrong to suggest that Adames has increased his stock with his play so far this season. The 28-year-old had generally established himself as an above-average shortstop on both sides of the ball entering the 2023 campaign, with a .255/.322/.448 slash line (110 wRC+) to go with a whopping 10 Outs Above Average during the 2022 campaign. While 2023 saw Adames maintain those top-of-the-scale defensive metrics at shortstop, his offense took a significant step back.

Despite career best strikeout (25.9%) and walk (11.1%) rates last season, Adames posted a career-worst 94 wRC+ while slashing a paltry .217/.310/.407 in 638 trips to the plate last year. That lackluster production was primarily due to Adames suffering a bit of a power outage. While his 64 home runs and 78 doubles between the 2020-22 campaigns gave him a healthy .220 isolated slugging across those three campaigns, 2023 saw that figure drop to just .190 as he slugged just 24 homers and 29 doubles. That combined with a career-worst .259 batting average on balls in play left Adames as a below average bat overall last year, raising some questions about his ability to command a significant deal this winter.

Fortunately for Adames, he’s largely put those concerns to bed with his performance in the first third of the 2024 campaign. He’s maintained the positive trends in terms of plate discipline from last year, sporting a healthy 10.4% walk rate while cutting his strikeouts down to just 20.7% of the time. On top of that, his .197 ISO suggests his power production is trending in the right direction, as does his hard-hit rate rebounding from just 36.1% last year to 40.7% so far this season. All that has left Adames with a solid .256/.335/.453 slash line (125 wRC+) to go with his best wOBA (.346) since 2021.

What’s more, it’s possible there’s even more offensive potential in Adames’s performance he has yet to tap into as indicated by his career-best .362 xwOBA. That figure is tied with Bryce Harper for 33rd among all qualified hitters this year, placing Adames’s expected production in the same stratosphere as elite infielders like Matt Olson and Rafael Devers. Even if Adames doesn’t end up reaching those heights this year, his current production at the plate in conjunction with defense at shortstop that has ranked in the 96th percentile or better of qualified fielders in each of the past three seasons is sure to make him among the most enticing infielders available this winter.

In the meantime, Adames has helped lead the Brewers to a command 6.5 game lead over the field in the NL Central as they’ve posted a 35-23 record to this point in the season. With such a solid lead in the division, one would be forgiven for assuming that Adames will remain in Milwaukee at least through the end of the 2024 campaign as the club continues to push towards its sixth playoff appearance in seven seasons. GM Matt Arnold indicated to reporters (including Hogg) during the conversation with Attanasio that nothing is guaranteed ahead of the trade deadline this summer, however, as he declined to say that the club’s star shortstop would be off the table this July.

“From my perspective you can never close the door on anything, but he is the heartbeat of our team in a lot of ways,” Arnold said, as relayed by Hogg. “Always want to stay open minded but also recognize the value that he brings to us everyday.”

If the Brewers were to collapse over the next two months, it would hardly be a surprise to see a budget-conscious club that prefers to avoid rebuilding and attempt to contend in perpetuity shop Adames around in hopes of finding longer term assets who could help the club win in the future. It’s much trickier to decipher whether they would seriously consider parting ways with Adames at the deadline if they remain firmly in the playoff picture, however. The Brewers famously dealt Josh Hader to the Padres at the trade deadline while in contention back in 2022, and the loss of the club’s closer surely helped to contribute to the 29-31 record from August 1 onward that left them on the outside looking in during the postseason that year.

On the other hand, the two prospects Milwaukee acquired in the deal, outfielder Esteury Ruiz and lefty Robert Gasser, have both gone on to contribute to the big league club in big ways this season. The Brewers flipped Ruiz during the 2022-23 offseason in order to land catcher William Contreras in a three-team deal with the Braves and A’s, and Contreras has since broken out as one of the league’s very best catchers. As for Gasser, the 25-year-old rookie has looked nothing short of dominant in four starts with the Brewers this season, posting a sterling 1.96 ERA and 2.52 FIP in 23 innings of work.

Given the major success the club has enjoyed in turning the prospects from that deal into production at the big league level less than two years later, it stands to reason that Milwaukee brass would at least consider parting ways with Adames if they felt they could reasonably replace his production down the stretch and come out ahead in the long term. On the other hand, the club’s struggles in 2022 following the Hader trade highlight the risks involved in such a maneuver and could leave Arnold’s front office reluctant to run the same risk just two seasons after it potentially cost the Brewers a postseason berth.