Chargers Over/Under: 4,000 passing yards for Justin Herbert

Will Justin Herbert get back over 4,000 passing yards this season?

The 2023 season was one to forget for Justin Herbert and the Chargers offense.

On one hand, there were times it looked pretty good under Kellen Moore! On the other, when Justin Herbert ended up missing the final four games of the season, it was near unwatchable. Due to missing those games, Herbert’s final stat line was nowhere near what we’ve come to expect.

In 13 games, Herbert threw for career lows in both passing yards (3,134) and touchdowns (20). His pace through the first 13 games would have pushed him 4,098 yards, but he still would have fallen short of his previous career low of 4,336. His touchdown pace would have had him at 26, narrowly avoiding his previous low mark of 25 in 2022.

But heck, even the entire 2022 season wasn’t up to Herbert’s and the team’s standards. It still caused many an eye roll and their lack of pizzazz and POP! directly led to the firing of offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi and QBs coach Shane Day.

But now here we are, entering 2023 with Greg Roman as the offensive coordinator and Day back as Herbert’s position coach. The offense is expected to be a lot more run-heavy but that doesn’t mean Herbert won’t have the chance to sling it around the yard when the moment calls for it.

So that’s leads us to the point of this whole thing:

Do you believe Herbert has a chance to surpass 4,000 passing yards again in his first year of the new offense?

The weapons at his disposal now include Josh Palmer, Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, Will Dissly, Hayden Hurst, J.K. Dobbins, and Gus Edwards (yikes that looks so odd without Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler).

At face value, this arsenal looks much more suited to run through a strong run/play-action attack than anything else.

Herbert’s average pass attempts are the biggest thing that should see a hit in 2024. Of course, that’s because he currently has the highest average pass attempts per game clip in NFL history at 39.1! That’s a whole lot of throwing!

But the idea of the new offense is that Herbert’s arm will be a bit more “free” since it won’t have to throw into expecting defenses time and time again. The Chargers will HAVE to force defenses to respect the run which will then allow more single-high looks and wider throwing lanes. No more are the days of Herbert hitting five-yard hitches followed by seven-yard slants over and over again to get downfield with the occasional howitzer bomb. The idea is to more often and more consistently break these defenses wide open.

Should this be the case, I can still see Herbert easily top 4,000 yards on the season. But that is just my two cents.