Is Kayvon Thibodeaux poised to break out?

Yeah, the conditions might be right for Thibodeaux to get even better

Can a pass rusher really break out after posting 11.5 sacks in his sophomore season?

Former NFL scout, and player, Bucky Brooks believes that’s indeed the case for New York Giants edge defender Kayvon Thibodeaux.

Brooks named Thibodeaux to his “All-Breakout” defense, a list of young defensive players that Brooks believes stand on the edge of stardom.

Brooks writes,

After amassing 11.5 sacks in his second season, Thibodeaux could become the next elite pass rusher to flourish in the Big Apple. The 6-foot-5, 258-pounder thrives as a speed rusher off the edge — and now he’s in position to really wreak havoc, lining up across the formation from two-time Pro Bowler Brian Burns. New York’s blockbuster trade acquisition will command most of the attention as the team’s most established edge rusher, leading to more one-on-one opportunities for Thibodeaux. With second-team All-Pro DT Dexter Lawrence also wrecking shop inside, Thibodeaux could post monster numbers in Year 3.

This is, of course, in line with much of the discourse around here following the Giants’ trade for Brian Burns. Not only should Burns help the Giants pass rush himself, his presence could force opposing offenses into having to make the kind of “pick your poison” decisions posed by the duo of Jason Pierre-Paul and Justin Tuck.

We wrote yesterday that PFF is disappointed in Thibodeaux’s 11.5-sack season and believes that he needs to step up. They noted that he only generated pressure on just 8.3 percent of his rushes (43 pressures in 520 pass rush reps).

But things could, and perhaps should, change this year.

Not only have the Giants added Burns into the mix (which could also make Azeez Ojulari more effective by reducing his cumulative reps) but they’re using a new scheme based on a generating a pass rush with the defensive line.

New defensive coordinator Shane Bowen mentioned in the Hard Knocks teaser that his scheme would be based on generating pressure with “four elite penetrators” up front. He noted Dexter Lawrence II, Brian Burns, and Thibodeaux as those penetrators, while wondering who would step up as the fourth.

The change in defensive philosophy is particularly notable considering how much the previous defense depended on scheming unblocked blitzers.

Player tracking data from NFL NextGenStats shows that while the Giants had the third-lowest overall pressure rate in the NFL last year, they were extremely good at scheming pressure. The Giants had the third highest pressure rate when sending 6 (or more) rushers, and the fourth-highest unblocked pressure rate in the NFL overall last year. That’s in line with ESPN’s Pass Rush Win Rate metric, which measures the rate at which defenders beat blockers in 2.5 seconds (or less). The Giants ranked 11th in PRWR last year, ahead of the San Francisco 49ers (12th) and New York Jets (22nd).

And that could be one of the biggest (and least talked-about) factors in a potential breakout season for Thibodeaux.

The Giants’ reliance on the blitz lead to some game-changing plays over the last two years, but it’s almost impossible for a player who faces a blocker every (or almost every) play to get to the quarterback before a player who’s unblocked. Add to that, the opposing offenses knew the blitz was coming and often planned to get the ball out quickly to neutralize the rush.

Bowen’s scheme won’t often send extra unblocked rushers and will instead rely on Thibodeaux, Burns, and Lawrence to create pressure. Meanwhile, dropping seven defenders into coverage should — at least in theory — help keep the ball in quarterbacks’ hands long enough for the pass rushers to get home.

The ingredients are all there for a breakout season from Thibodeaux: His own personal development, other threats around him, and a new scheme which (should) give him more opportunities to shine. He might not see a big statistical bump — 11.5 sacks is still a good season, I don’t care what PFF says. However, being a more consistent presence in opponents’ backfield could constitute a “breakout” year and make Thibodeaux the next great Giants’ pass rusher.

It’d be fitting if that happened in the team’s 100th anniversary.