Packers’ best plays of 2023, #1: Keisean Nixon outsmarts Patrick Mahomes

Rarely has a corner played more perfectly.

The Kansas City Chiefs have the best quarterback in football, and when it’s all said and done, Patrick Mahomes may very well be the greatest of all time. In the 2023 season, Kansas City went 11-6, and of course, won the Super Bowl, but it was a slightly unusual Chiefs team. The only proven weapon left for Mahomes to target was an aged Travis Kelce and the offense finished just 15^th in points scored. The defense, on the other hand, was amazing, finishing second. But the reason that formula worked was fundamentally the greatness of Mahomes and his ability to generate offense single-handedly.

A week after upsetting the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving, the Packers played a valiant game against KC, but it was not looking good. They held a tenuous 5-point lead late in the game, with the sport’s greatest quarterback driving to take the lead.

The Situation

It wasn’t looking good. A late five-point lead in football is among the scariest leads in sports, especially when you just had to settle for a 40-yard Anders Carlson field goal and your defense is face to face with Patrick Mahomes with six full minutes on the clock.

Things went from bad to worse when the drive started. Mahomes hit Rashee Rice for a quick nine yards, followed up by a devastating pass interference call against Packer corner Corey Ballentine, who was unable to contain Rice for another 17 yards. That penalty pushed KC into Packer territory with 5:20 remaining, at which point the Packers’ kick returner extraordinaire-turned-slot-corner decided that it wasn’t going to happen for Mahomes. Not today, not on his watch.

The Play

This play received our number one overall rating, with no APC contributor ranking it below fourth. I don’t think it’s possible to overstate how great of an individual effort Keisean Nixon put together here. Rarely does a combination of tape study, recognition, and pure athleticism come together so fluidly and in such a big moment.

It’s first and ten with 5:20 remaining, and all options are available for Kansas City. The Chiefs come out in shotgun using 11 personnel, with the receivers bunched and no one playing truly outside. At the bottom of the formation is Kadarius Toney, who fires off the line and runs directly into safety Jonathan Owens, almost as if he’s run blocking. Travis Kelce, who was inside of Toney, stays in to block. The Packers brought five rushers on this play, but with Owens and Corey Ballentine getting stuck with Toney, and Quay Walker staying in to spy on Mahomes, there are eight Packer defenders within ten yards of Mahomes.

At the top of the formation, Rashee Rice is lined up widest with Skyy Moore in the slot. Darnell Savage is the lone safety, playing quite deep. Carrington Valentine is playing tight on Rice while our hero Keisean Nixon is playing off of Skyy Moore. This play is an incredible chess match where everyone acts perfectly rationally, which may be why Nixon was able to do such a great job reading and reacting.

The Packers have ten men in the box with Savage deep. With so much space in the secondary, Mahomes is all about passing. He makes a token RPO fake handoff to Isiah Pacheco and sets his sights downfield to the largely abandoned secondary. Rice immediately engages physically with Carrington Valentine, and their hand-fighting creates a natural pick just across the line of scrimmage. Moore starts slowly off the line, attempting to bring Nixon underneath the pick before speeding outside, underneath Valentine and Rice, and turning up the sideline vertically.

Nixon is having none of this. He clearly understands that there is a lack of safety help over the top, and the last thing he needs to do is come crashing down on Moore under that pick. Instead, he waits back just a second, reads Moore’s route, and breaks on top of the pick. Mahomes only has one play here, and he lets it fly, which brings us to Nixon’s brilliance in reading Moore’s eyes:

Nixon knows that this is his man. He doesn’t look into the backfield at Mahomes, and he doesn’t turn prematurely, he just locks onto Moore and mirrors his speed and movement.

One thing we’ve talked about repeatedly at Acme Packing Company, especially with great receivers like Davante Adams, is the importance of “late hands.” When the ball is about to arrive, if you start your catch motion too early, it will alert the defensive back to react and get a hand in there. Davante always waited until the last possible second. Skyy Moore…does not:

Nixon sees his hands go up and moves from tracking Moore to tracking the ball, where he shows what a truly outstanding athlete he is. Once Nixon picks up the ball, he realizes that both he and Moore are too shallow, and immediately adjusts downfield. He manages to screen off the receiver and makes a catch worthy of Davante himself, with elite body control while high-pointing the ball.

Nixon is expected to get the starting nod at nickel again next season in addition to his special teams duties, and while he occasionally makes young player’s mistakes and gambles a bit too often, he also puts a fair number of plays like this on tape. He’s incredibly smart, and some of that gambling I mentioned isn’t so much gambling as it is a trust in his knowledge and tape study. As he gains more experience, those habits will serve him well.

The Aftermath

This play led to an Anders Carlson field goal, a much safer eight-point lead, and a victory over the eventual Super Bowl champs. Not everyone can say they outsmarted Patrick Mahomes, and even fewer can say that doing so saved the game. Nixon pulled it off, and without this play, it’s unlikely the Packers find themselves in the playoffs.