Using 6 different metrics to determine the 49ers strength of schedule in 2024

Looking at records from a season ago doesn’t come close to painting the full picture, so we’ll look at several other metrics to determine the 49ers’ strength of schedule for this upcoming season.

There are several ways to measure schedule difficulty. The most outdated one is the use of win/loss records from the prior season. We can look at how the New York Jets performed, but their offensive numbers would be inaccurate since Aaron Rodgers didn’t play.

The Seattle Seahawks‘ defense should be night and day compared to last year’s defense after hiring Mike MacDonald as their defensive coordinator. You can get into the scheduling quirks, spots, injuries, etc.

2023 record

When you use last year’s record, the 49ers have the 13th-most difficult strength of schedule:

From the examples above to, others that are obvious, using the previous year’s record is a poor predictor for future success. My favorite way, albeit far from perfect, is to use win totals determined by Vegas. Sharp Football Analysis has data to support that it’s more predictive. The win totals account for who a team added during the offseason and is more about what you are in 2024 as opposed to what you were in 2023.

Strength of schedule by 2024 win totals

The 49ers are 18th using this metric from Sharp Football Analysis. The NFC West is clustered in the middle, while the AFC North will beat up on each other as they are all near the bottom.

Travel

Rohan covered the mileage and the rest of the deficit the 49ers face this offseason.

I’m not convinced the 49ers will lose a game this season because they areat a rest disadvantage. Take last season, for example. The Cincinnati Bengals won convincingly against the Niners. They were off a bye week, and Joe Burrow looked spry and in peak condition. Did the extra week help Burrow? Of course. But that wasn’t why Brock Purdy threw a red zone interception and two other turnovers or why the 49ers couldn’t stop the Bengals offensively.

Logically, it makes sense. You have to travel; you’re out of your element, and you havemore distractions away from home since you’re not doing your weekly routine. I get it. The 49ers will travel the fifth-most miles in 2024:

It feels like you minimize a big portion of what goes into a game and what happens during the 60-70 plays by saying, “Oh, bad travel spot!”

Last season, the Ravens came into Santa Clara after playing in Los Angeles, then flew back home to Baltimore, traveled to Jacksonville, and then flew to the Bay Area. That’s a busy month against quality opponents,and you would have had no idea the Ravens traveled as much leading up to that game.

Short weeks

The more money invested in the sport, the more games will be televised throughout the week. That means more short weeks will become a thing.

ESPN has data on short weeks. The 49ers have two short road weeks, tied with 14 other teams. Only the Dallas Cowboys and Bengals have three. San Francisco was 19th in the NFL for the most short weeks in 2024, so there’s nothing abnormal about the schedule, comparatively speaking.

Still, the 49ers have eight weeks with “less rest” than their opponent, which is two more than any other team in the NFL. That usually shows at the end of a trip. We’ll see if that’s the case for this upcoming season.

Games versus teams off a bye week

The 49ers have four games against an opponent off a bye week, the most in the NFL and tied for the most since 2002. This was the case last year, and the Niners did pretty well for themselves, I’d say.

Super Bowl odds

I’m throwing this in just because it’s different. Deniz Selman created a strength of schedule ranking based on the Super Bowl odds of their opponents. For example, the 49ers have the second-best Super Bowl odds, so they’d count as a “two” on every schedule. Here are the results:

San Francisco lands in the middle of the pack at 15th.

So, by most metrics, the 49ers are smack dab in the middle regarding the strength of schedule. They have a balanced schedule with a tough stretch here and there, like every other team. There are also inevitable “trap” or “letdown” spots. But my takeaway from the data wasn’t that the Niners are at a disadvantage. Not with the talent they have and who they play.