Breaking down the would-be juggernaut that is the Falcons RB position

Not much has changed here, and the Falcons should be great on the ground despite a new coaching staff.

Sometimes it is best to keep things simple. So here it is, writ plainly: The Atlanta Falcons have one of the best running back duos in the NFL. They have one of the best run-blocking offensive lines in the league. They’ll have one of the better ground games in the NFL, too.

If my confidence seems a little brazen after the less-than-stellar results of 2023, it’s because talent should have won the day a year ago and should win the day now. Zac Robinson is joining up from a Rams offense he’ll be heavily influenced by, and those Rams finished 11th in rushing last year (the Falcons finished 9th) despite having one elite back in Kyren Williams who played in just 12 games. Arthur Smith’s reputation for ground-based success and the excellent results of the 2022 season may conspire with the Kirk Cousins signing to make you think the Falcons will be a less passionate and effective running team, but there’s actually the very real potential they’ll be significantly more efficient in 2024.

And that’s going to happen largely with existing personnel. The Falcons have actually bolstered the group this year with the addition of an interesting rookie and the return of Avery Williams, considering fan-favorite and forever legend Cordarrelle Patterson just wasn’t the same player and was not healthy in 2023. For this team to unlock its full potential on the ground in 2024, however, it’ll be on Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier, and this offensive line to ensure it happens.

Let’s talk about how this group has changed and why we should be so optimistic about them.

Roster changes: Depth tweaks

As I mentioned above, Patterson is gone, off to Pittsburgh with Arthur Smith. A focal point of the offense in 2021, Patterson saw his targets inexplicably fall off a cliff in 2022 as injury took a bite out of his productivity, and then become a total non-factor in the offense in 2023. Chances are very good the players replacing him will end up out-producing Patterson, which is less of a knock on the veteran than a simple statement of reality.

The focal point of the ground game will, of course, be Bijan Robinson. The promising rookie was wildly over-utilized as a receiver last year—his 86 targets were more than he had in three years at Texas combined—and the huge snap counts and responsibilities he soaked up there took some focus away from him as a runner. That experience should help him enter the 2024 season as a more refined route runner and option in the passing game for Kirk Cousins, but I’d expect his passing down snap counts to fall a little bit and his targets to come down just because of the weaponry added. That will hopefully allow Robinson and the Falcons alike to focus on increasing his carry count at least slightly and making him an even more productive runner than he was in his rookie season, because Robinson’s vision, burst, and ability to escape defenders should make him among the league’s most lethal running backs.

For everything else, there’s Tyler Allgeier. A rugged and capable pass protection option, Allgeier can pick up passing down snaps for Robinson when blocking is a clear need, and is a perfectly capable catch-it-and-rumble outlet for Cousins. He is not the same caliber of runner as Robinson is—if Robinson hits his obvious ceiling, few running backs will be—but Allgeier proved in 2022 that with capable blocking and thoughtful usage he can be a tremendous asset because of solid straight-line speed, terrific physicality, and ability to break tackles. When Robinson is healthy, Allgeier will likely settle into a role where he takes some early down and short-yardage work, chips in as a blocking option, and spells Robinson in the middle-to-late portions of games. If Robinson is ever hurt, Allgeier becomes a bellcow option immediately thanks to his well-rounded skillset.

The team’s newest addition, Jase McClellan, would seem to a logical insurance policy for either player. He’s not an extremely dynamic runner or pass catcher, nor is he the most refined pass protection option out of the gate, but he does a little bit of all of that at least reasonably well. If everyone’s healthy, McClellan has a very limited role, but if opportunity arises he’s well-rounded enough in his own right to fill the niches the team needs to be filled.

And finally, there’s getting back Avery Williams, which is more-or-less a small signing in its own right. Williams is a lethal player with the ball in his hands given his electric speed and the seeming precognition that makes him such an effective punt returner, and while his snaps and opportunities will be limited, he has a chance to make the most of them with big plays in an Antone Smith Lite sort of way. The coaching staff should have some fun cooking up a handful of looks for a player who can turn a nothing play into something like Williams can.

With a couple of tweaks the team made this offseason, in other words, this is one of the better and frankly deeper groups in the league. Robinson should be electric in his sophomore season, Allgeier should be terrific when called upon, and McClellan and Williams (and Carlos Washington, if he hangs on to a practice squad spot) will give the team quality contingency plans and options to spell the starters. You would have to be dour by nature not to see the value this group can bring in 2024.

Key addition

• Jase McClellan: In year one, he’s going to be buried on the depth chart a bit, especially since he’s been recovering from a pre-existing injury. The only real path to significant playing time will come if someone gets hurt. But there’s a lot to like with McClellan, a solidly-built player who was productive and versatile at Alabama, with a limited but useful track record as a receiving option in addition to consistently fine work as a runner. With a new staff in town and Allgeier entering the third year of his rookie contract, it’s quite possible McClellan could push his way into something bigger down the line. As a third running back at the moment, his ability and versatility suggest he’ll be useful when called upon.