Could the Giants really trade up for a quarterback?
We’re about three weeks away from the start of the New York Giants 2024 training camp, but we’re also still solidly in the Dog Days of Summer.
This time of year is always filled with speculation about the upcoming season. Usually that takes the form of power rankings or listicles, but occasionally we’ll get a Way-Too-Early mock draft as a change of pace.
That’s the route ESPN’s Matt Miller took when he released his Mock Draft 1.0 (exclusive content) on Tuesday morning. Miller started his mock off with some pre-Fourth of July fireworks, at least as far as we’re concerned. He has the Giants trading up to the first overall pick with the New England Patriots to select University of Georgia quarterback Carson Beck.
Projected trade: Giants come up to No. 1 overall
We might not have a generational talent like Caleb Williams in this class, but there are some really good quarterbacks. And given that the Patriots just used a 2024 top-three pick on Drake Maye, I’d bet they would be listening on trade offers if they were to have the top pick next year. I like the idea of the Giants moving up, and the trade package could look similar to what Carolina sent to Chicago in 2023, when the Panthers slid up to No. 1 from No. 9. I have the Giants dealing their No. 6 pick, a 2025 second-rounder, a 2026 first-rounder and a 2027 second-rounder to get this done.
1. New York Giants (via projected trade with NE)
Carson Beck, QB, Georgia*
The Giants threw 15 touchdown passes last season (fifth fewest in the league) and Daniel Jones is coming off a season-ending ACL injury, but the team is running it back this year. Veteran Drew Lock was added as a backup, but there still isn’t a long-term answer under center on this roster. So the front office might get aggressive in finding one. Beck — my QB1 in the class at the moment — is a steady pocket passer with a big arm and great processing speed. And he is primed for a breakout season after throwing 24 touchdown passes and completing 72.4% of his throws in his first season as a starter in 2023.
Raptor’s thoughts
First and foremost, let’s be real about what a mock draft is, and isn’t, at this point in the calendar.
A mock draft released 296 days before the upcoming draft is not seeking to accurately predict what will happen on draft night. Frankly, it’s a fool’s errand to try and predict the draft at all, and doing so before the underclassmen declare or the season is even played isn’t even serious.
What a mock draft at this point in the year IS trying to do is use the draft as a lens to examine both the upcoming college season and the state of the 32 NFL rosters. It’s attempting to make a prediction which draft eligible prospects will play well, which teams might have good (or poor) seasons, and what the teams’ perceived needs could be.
In this case, Miller is forecasting that Georgia’s Carson Beck will finish as the top quarterback prospect in the draft, and also take a enough of a step forward that he’ll be worth trading up in the first round for.
Likewise, he believes that not only will the Giants finish with a(nother) top 10 pick, but that they’ll be in the market for a quarterback.
It isn’t much of a surprise to see an analyst project a top 10 pick for the Giants. They finished with a top nine pick in 89 percent of the time in my recent simulation of their 2024 season. In fact, finishing with the 9th pick was on the optimistic side, at least according to Pro Football Network’s algorithm. It’s safe to say that the NFL media at large isn’t nearly as high on the Giants now as they were a year ago.
The dynamics surrounding the Giants’ quarterback position, however, are positively mind-bottling (I said what I said).
The Giants are committed to going into the 2024 season with Daniel Jones as he returns from the ACL tear that ended his 2023 season.
The best outcome — and the one the Giants are banking on — is that the presence of Malik Nabers and an improved guard duo will allow Jones to elevate his game to the point where the team no longer needs to think about the quarterback position.
His injury, however, complicates predictions in and of itself as we simply don’t know when (or if) Jones will return to his previous levels of athleticism. Historically, he has been much less effective when his running ability has been limited when returning from injury. We simply don’t know if, or how long, that will be a factor this year.
Likewise, there’s the specter of future injury to consider as well.
Jones’ contract has an “out” after this season, which will allow the Giants to part ways with him with relatively limited dead money. However, his contract also includes an injury guarantee that kicks in if he isn’t able to pass a physical shortly after the start of the 2025 league year. Jones has suffered a significant injury in five of the last six seasons, and a season-ending injury in two of the last three seasons. Jones’ injury guarantees kicking in could significantly complicate their long-term plans.
Setting those hypotheticals aside, what about Beck — and a blockbuster trade up for him.
Miller has the Giants sending two first-round picks (2025 and 2026) and two second-round picks (2025 and 2027) to the Patriots to move from sixth overall to first overall.
The answer to that is a resounding “Maybe?”
Beck has the size the Giants seem to like at the quarterback position at 6-foot-4, 220 pounds. He has a high completion percentage with has enough arm strength to execute most throws, as well as enough athleticism to make defenders pay if they don’t respect his legs. He has the traits to become worthy of a first overall pick, and a trade up, but it’s no sure thing.
Overall, I’m not as high on Beck — or any of the 2025 quarterback prospects — as Miller or many other evaluators seem to be. As of right now, I would rank each of the top six quarterbacks from the 2024 class above the 2025 class. That could obviously change over the next 290 days, and I do expect development from Beck, Alabama’s Jalen Milroe, or perhaps other passers.
But as things stand now, the Giants trading two firsts and two seconds for Carson Beck is probably too rich for my blood.
Overall, it’s a thorny situation, but at least Miller has the Giants finishing with a better record than the Commanders.
Elsewhere in the NFC East
5) Washington Commanders – Kelvin Banks (OT, LSU)
27) Dallas Cowboys – Quinshon Judkins (RB, Ohio State)
28) Philadelphia Eagles – Malaki Starks (S, Georgia)
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