Predicted stats are all over the place for Dak Prescott.
BetOnline released several over/under statlines for Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott on Tuesday.
- Regular season passing yards: 4,050.5
- Regular season passing touchdowns: 29.5
- Regular season interceptions: 11.5
Let’s break down these numbers compared to the 2023 season, his career highs and lows in each of these categories, and why you should take the over or under.
Passing Yards
The over/under of just 4,050.5 passing yards next season seems to be the easiest stat to hit the over on. Last season, Prescott threw for 4,516 passing yards which was the third-highest in the league. He did this with RB Tony Pollard surpassing 1,000 rushing yards on the ground.
Prescott’s career high in passing yards is 4,902. He accomplished this staggering feat in 2019. In 2021 he also threw for 4,449 passing yards. His career low for a season in which he played 16+ games came in 2017 when he threw for 3,334 passing yards.
It seems pretty safe to bet the over on this one. Prescott could potentially be on the final year of his contract, and the team has question marks in the running game with the team going with a “running back by committee” approach. If Prescott can stay healthy this season, it’s a pretty safe bet to hammer the over on this line.
Passing Touchdowns
At first glance, the idea of Prescott being able to throw more than 29.5 touchdowns sounds like an easy over. However, it’s important to consider who the team brought in during free agency this offseason. RB Ezekiel Elliott returned to the Cowboys, hoping to bring a stronger red-zone presence on the ground and being reliable in pass blocking.
It’s fair to assume that Elliott could be a touchdown merchant this year for the Cowboys. His 3.5 yards per carry for the New England Patriots last season was a career low. However, he still provides a big body near the goal line and will be the Cowboys premier option on the ground near that area of the field.
Prescott threw for 36 touchdowns last season, 23 in 2022, and a career-high 37 in 2021. His career low (for 16+ games started) came in 2017 and 2018 when he threw for 22 in both years. Out of his eight seasons in the league, he’s thrown for at least 30 touchdowns just three times. WR CeeDee Lamb isn’t necessarily known as being a red-zone target and the team didn’t bring in a clear 50-50 ball receiver in the offseason. While this could truthfully go either way, it’s a safer bet to take the under on his passing touchdowns this upcoming season.
Interceptions
Prescott faced immense criticism from the media and in particular Cowboys fans in 2022 when he threw 15 interceptions. While 15 is the highest in his career in a season, it notably came in a season where he only played 12 regular season games. Prescott made a vow last offseason that he would improve in this area and take care of the ball more in the 2023 season. He accomplished this by throwing only nine interceptions, six less than the previous season while playing five more games.
As previously noted, Prescott could be playing for a contract this year. While it previously seemed improbable we could see him playing the season without a new contract, we enter July and he still has not received a long-term extension. With that in mind, it would be safe to assume he will feel the pressure of putting together a successful season.
Out of his eight seasons in the league, Prescott has only thrown more than 11 interceptions twice. 15 in 2022 and 13 in 2017. As a betting man, the numbers indicate it would be a wise bet to hit the under on his 11.5 projection for the 2024 season.
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