Rays Trade Aaron Civale To Brewers

9:09am: The Rays have formally announced the trade.

8:25am: The Brewers are kicking off their summer trade season with a deal to bring in some much-needed rotation help, acquiring right-hander Aaron Civale from the Rays in exchange for infield prospect Gregory Barrios.

It’s one of the first notable trades of the 2024 season — one that addresses a key need for the Brewers (rotation depth) while netting some longer-term value for a Rays club that has multiple arms nearing a return from injury. Right-hander Shane Baz’s rehab from 2022 Tommy John surgery is effectively wrapped up, while southpaw Jeffrey Springs is nearing a return from his own Tommy John procedure, performed last April. Righty Drew Rasmussen, who underwent an internal brace procedure last July, is further behind that pair but is now one year removed from his surgery.

With those arms nearing a return that’ll slot them in alongside Zach Eflin, Zack Littell, Taj Bradley and Ryan Pepiot, the Rays have reportedly been open to dealing some veteran rotation help — with Civale and Littell the primary names among the reported possibilities. It bears emphasizing that there is no indication Tampa Bay is prepared to embark on a full-scale rebuild or notable summer sell-off. The organization surely feels that moving Civale (and potentially still listening on Littell and Eflin) is a matter of trading from a position of strength. The Rays exist in a perpetual state of both “buyer” and “seller,” regularly flipping veterans with dwindling levels of club control (such as Civale) in exchange for younger and more controllable talent.

While the Rays are currently flush with viable rotation candidates, the same cannot be said for a Brewers squad that has been hammered by injuries in 2024. Wade Miley underwent Tommy John surgery early in the season, and well-regarded pitching prospect Robert Gasser followed suit last month after impressing through his first five big league starts (2.57 ERA). DL Hall, acquired from the Orioles in the offseason Corbin Burnes trade, has been out since April with a knee sprain. Righty Joe Ross is on the 60-day injured list with a back strain.

The Brewers, who recently acquired Dallas Keuchel in a cash swap with the Mariners (and have received one rough start and a second sharper outing from the former Cy Young winner), have already used 15 different starting pitchers this season. Civale will make 16. At the moment, Milwaukee has Freddy Peralta, Bryse Wilson, Colin Rea and Tobias Myers in the rotation alongside Keuchel. Rea and Myers have exceeded any expectations, combining for 25 starts (14 for Rea, 11 for Myers) while both sporting earned run averages well south of 4.00. They’ve been rotation saviors for first-year skipper Pat Murphy, but some reinforcements were known to be a target for Milwaukee general manager Matt Arnold and his staff with the trade deadline now just 27 days away.

While it feels like most pitchers thrive and unlock a new gear upon being traded to the Rays organization, that hasn’t been the case for Civale. Acquired late last July in a trade sending first base prospect Kyle Manzardo to Cleveland, Civale came to the Rays with two and a half years of club control remaining and a strong track record with the Guardians. The 2016 third-rounder had battled his share of injury troubles but typically been good to great when healthy. In parts of five seasons, he gave Cleveland 430 innings of 3.77 ERA ball, all coming out of the rotation. He averaged 5 2/3 innings per outing, punched out a slightly below-average 21.1% of his opponents and limited walks at an excellent 6.1% clip.

With Tampa Bay, Civale has struggled to keep his ERA down. He’s worked to a 5.17 ERA in 132 1/3 frames dating back to last year’s deadline. That unsightly mark comes despite the fact that Civale has notably improved his strikeout rate (24.7%) even as the league-average strikeout rate has declined. He’s generally maintained his strong command, too (6.5% walk rate).

However, Civale has become increasingly homer-prone, yielding an average of 1.56 round-trippers per nine innings pitched — a sizable uptick from the 1.19 HR/9 he averaged in Cleveland. He’s also been plagued by a spike in his average on balls in play (despite Tampa Bay’s strong defense). It’s all added up to tank Civale’s strand rate and lead to more runners crossing the plate, even as metrics like xFIP and SIERA feel he’s been a comparable pitcher to his Cleveland days from a skill standpoint.

Acquiring Civale is something of a roll of the dice by the Brewers. Adding any homer-prone pitcher and plugging him into the Brewers’ homer-happy American Family Field is not without risk. That said, Milwaukee also has a reputation for maximizing pitcher performance, just as the Rays and Guardians do. The Brewers likely have their own tweaks and slight changes to game-planning that they feel can help get Civale back into his Cleveland form. Failing that, he at least ought to provide some steady back-of-the-rotation innings.

For a budget-conscious team like the Brewers, Civale surely holds some extra appeal. He’s earning a reasonable $4.9MM in 2024, with about $2.34MM of that sum yet to be paid out. The Brewers will assume the remainder of that tab. They’ll also control Civale through the 2025 season via arbitration, making him a likely multi-year member of the rotation. He’ll be due one final raise, though with his slow start to the season, his earning power via that process will be relatively suppressed even if he engineers a turnaround with the Brew Crew.

Barrios will give the Rays yet another talented infielder defender to plug into the system. The Venezuelan-born 20-year-old is already in High-A and has handled the level quite well despite facing older competition. In 60 games (252 plate appearances), Barrios is slashing .317/.361/.423 (121 wRC+) with a homer, 17 doubles, two triples, 16 steals (in 22 attempts), a 5.2% walk rate and a tiny 9.5% strikeout rate.

Entering the season, Baseball America pegged Barrios 26th in Milwaukee’s system. He sat No. 21 on MLB.com’s list of the top 30 Brewers prospects at the time of the swap, and Keith Law of The Athletic listed him just outside the Brewers’ top-20 farmhands heading into the season. Barrios’ strong defensive skills and potential to be a plus glove at shortstop have made him a prospect of some note in Milwaukee’ system even as he’s struggled offensively in his first three pro seasons.

That well-regarded glove now looks all the more intriguing with Barrios hitting well against more advanced pitching in High-A. He’ll likely slot into the middle of the Rays’ top 30 or so prospects moving forward. Barrios won’t do anything to improve the Rays’ chances in 2024 (unless he’s included in a subsequent trade for help in other areas), but by late 2025 or early 2026, he could push for a big league debut if he’s able to continue this offensive breakout. He won’t be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft until the 2025-26 offseason, so the Rays needn’t worry about adding him to the 40-man roster anytime soon.

While it’s the first notable trade of the season for both teams, it’s not likely to be the last. The Brewers could still use some rotation help and have an enviable stash of young outfielders that will continue to pique the interest of other clubs. The Rays opened one rotation spot, likely for Baz, but still have another prominent arm (Springs) on the mend with another on the horizon (Rasmussen). They’re currently three games back in the AL Wild Card race, so a full sell-off should not be expected (barring a protracted losing streak), but their stock of arms will draw interest and provide them the opportunity to either restock their farm (as they did in this deal) or add some big league help at another area of need as the deadline draws nearer.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported that Civale had been traded to Milwaukee. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported that the Brewers were sending a minor league infielder to Tampa Bay. The Post’s Joel Sherman first reported that Barrios was the return in the 1-for-1 swap.